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Prediction for CME (2026-05-28T09:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-05-28T09:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46442/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible well to the E in STEREO A COR, and as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 comprised of multiple overlapping features, clearly a complex structure. This front may be related to a slow, faint dimming in SDO AIA 193 as early as 2026-05-28T01:57Z centered around S33E28 south of AR 14436 (S16E29), which is more directly attributed to earlier CME: 2026-05-28T03:38Z but this front at T9:23Z resembles more of streamer blowout and could simply be outflow following from that first signature. No distinct eruptive activity is seen relating to this start time.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-31T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46446/1
Model Inputs:
2026-05-27T22:37:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=359.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2026-05-28T07:46Z
2026-05-28T05:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=337.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2026-05-28T16:15Z
2026-05-28T09:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=342.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2026-05-28T19:11Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-05-31T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-02T23:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-01T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 66.38 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2026-05-28T17:37Z

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